1 積極開展交(jiao)通影響分析的基礎(chu)數據(ju)庫的建立工作

從國(guo)外交(jiao)通(tong)影響分(fen)(fen)(fen)析的(de)成功實踐中(zhong)我(wo)們可以看出，國(guo)外的(de)交(jiao)通(tong)影響分(fen)(fen)(fen)析中(zhong)無(wu)論(lun)(lun)是(shi)閾(yu)(yu)值的(de)推薦(jian)還(huan)是(shi)出行(xing)吸(xi)引(yin)和(he)發生(sheng)率(lv)的(de)推薦(jian)，都(dou)是(shi)建立在(zai)交(jiao)通(tong)科學的(de)基(ji)礎(chu)(chu)研究以及(ji)大量交(jiao)通(tong)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)采(cai)(cai)集和(he)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析的(de)基(ji)礎(chu)(chu)上(shang)的(de)。因此(ci)(ci)，對于我(wo)國(guo)交(jiao)通(tong)影響分(fen)(fen)(fen)析目(mu)前存(cun)在(zai)的(de)問(wen)題，無(wu)論(lun)(lun)是(shi)閾(yu)(yu)值的(de)缺失含(han)混(hun)還(huan)是(shi)交(jiao)通(tong)發生(sheng)吸(xi)引(yin)率(lv)不可信，其主要(yao)原因還(huan)是(shi)基(ji)礎(chu)(chu)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)的(de)匱乏，因此(ci)(ci)，要(yao)充(chong)分(fen)(fen)(fen)發揮政(zheng)府部門(men)的(de)組(zu)織協調(diao)和(he)引(yin)導作用(yong)，協調(diao)各領(ling)域各部門(men)，積極進行(xing)各時期交(jiao)通(tong)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)的(de)調(diao)查采(cai)(cai)集和(he)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析工作，建立統一的(de)通(tong)用(yong)的(de)共享(xiang)的(de)基(ji)礎(chu)(chu)交(jiao)通(tong)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)庫(ku)，為交(jiao)通(tong)科學基(ji)礎(chu)(chu)研究以及(ji)交(jiao)通(tong)影響分(fen)(fen)(fen)析奠(dian)定數(shu)(shu)據(ju)基(ji)礎(chu)(chu)。

2 積極開展交通科學基(ji)礎研究工作(zuo)

我國(guo)的(de)交(jiao)通科學(xue)研(yan)究基礎(chu)理論方面尚很薄弱，交(jiao)通影響(xiang)(xiang)分析的(de)關鍵技術是(shi)研(yan)究范(fan)圍和閾(yu)值(zhi)的(de)確定(ding)(ding)(ding)，建立一套(tao)科學(xue)的(de)基礎(chu)理論以實現定(ding)(ding)(ding)量的(de)方法來確定(ding)(ding)(ding)研(yan)究范(fan)圍、建立適(shi)合我國(guo)情況的(de)閾(yu)值(zhi)的(de)確定(ding)(ding)(ding)機(ji)理是(shi)建立交(jiao)通影響(xiang)(xiang)分析標準化體系的(de)基石。

3 確立完整的閾值(zhi)指標(biao)(biao)體系，實(shi)現閾值(zhi)指標(biao)(biao)的標(biao)(biao)準化

在基(ji)礎(chu)理論成熟、閾(yu)值確定機理明(ming)確的(de)(de)基(ji)礎(chu)上，選擇概念清晰，量(liang)值明(ming)確，且能較為(wei)全面反映各種(zhong)影(ying)響因素的(de)(de)閾(yu)值指標(biao)，確立完整(zheng)的(de)(de)閾(yu)值指標(biao)體系(xi)，給出明(ming)確的(de)(de)量(liang)值標(biao)準(zhun)，有(you)利于規(gui)劃部門的(de)(de)實踐操(cao)作，也有(you)利于完整(zheng)的(de)(de)交通影(ying)響分析(xi)體系(xi)的(de)(de)建立。

4 明確(que)交通(tong)影(ying)響分析的功能(neng)定位，實現(xian)交通(tong)影(ying)響分析管理程序的標準化

交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)可通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)過系統分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)方法，定(ding)(ding)量地分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)土(tu)地使用及開(kai)發強度(du)與交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)量生(sheng)成或吸(xi)引的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)關系，研究在特定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)土(tu)地使用條(tiao)件(jian)下，未來(lai)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)需(xu)求(qiu)與路網容納能力(li)是(shi)否匹配以(yi)及這些交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)量對(dui)城市(shi)路網負荷的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)疊加效應，并對(dui)既(ji)有的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)方案進(jin)行(xing)評(ping)價和檢(jian)驗。從(cong)根本上講，交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)是(shi)為規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)管(guan)理(li)服(fu)務的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，筆者認為我(wo)國交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)實施管(guan)理(li)應該將(jiang)南京市(shi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)規(gui)(gui)定(ding)(ding)明確(que)化(hua)，使之(zhi)成為一個確(que)定(ding)(ding)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)標準，即：在規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)選(xuan)(xuan)址(zhi)或規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)設(she)計(ji)要點中均需(xu)進(jin)行(xing)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)，但(dan)是(shi)2個階(jie)段(duan)進(jin)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)側重點不(bu)同(tong)，因(yin)此(ci)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)內(nei)容與結(jie)果(guo)也不(bu)同(tong)，在規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)選(xuan)(xuan)址(zhi)階(jie)段(duan)進(jin)行(xing)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)側重于對(dui)選(xuan)(xuan)址(zhi)以(yi)及開(kai)發強度(du)方面進(jin)行(xing)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)控制(zhi)，在規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)設(she)計(ji)階(jie)段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)則可以(yi)從(cong)交(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)角度(du)對(dui)建設(she)項目的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)初步規(gui)(gui)劃(hua)設(she)計(ji)方案進(jin)行(xing)評(ping)價，提(ti)出修改意見。

5 規范(fan)交通影響分析(xi)內容的廣度和深度，實現(xian)交通影響分析(xi)程序的標準化

交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)管(guan)理(li)程(cheng)(cheng)序的(de)(de)(de)標(biao)準(zhun)化自然(ran)地將不同階段(duan)的(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)內容(rong)的(de)(de)(de)深度(du)和(he)(he)廣度(du)進(jin)(jin)行了定(ding)性的(de)(de)(de)界定(ding)，即(ji)使是同一(yi)個階段(duan)，各個層(ceng)次的(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)報(bao)告究(jiu)竟要涵(han)蓋哪些內容(rong)，要進(jin)(jin)行到何種程(cheng)(cheng)度(du)也(ye)應該是不同的(de)(de)(de)，例(li)如，如果(guo)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)過閾值指標(biao)體系的(de)(de)(de)建立將交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)為初(chu)步(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)和(he)(he)詳細(xi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)，則在初(chu)步(bu)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)研究(jiu)中，不需(xu)要對現(xian)狀(zhuang)和(he)(he)未來的(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)條(tiao)件(jian)進(jin)(jin)行詳細(xi)的(de)(de)(de)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)，也(ye)不需(xu)要細(xi)致的(de)(de)(de)數據收集和(he)(he)計算(suan)機模型計算(suan)，只(zhi)是提供一(yi)種粗略的(de)(de)(de)現(xian)狀(zhuang)和(he)(he)預測的(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)條(tiao)件(jian)信息，為以后(hou)的(de)(de)(de)進(jin)(jin)一(yi)步(bu)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)奠定(ding)基礎;而詳細(xi)的(de)(de)(de)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)內容(rong)則需(xu)要涵(han)蓋：開發項目現(xian)狀(zhuang)條(tiao)件(jian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、確(que)定(ding)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)的(de)(de)(de)時限和(he)(he)高峰時間、確(que)定(ding)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)研究(jiu)范圍、交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)量預測、交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)、道(dao)路及相關交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)設施的(de)(de)(de)改善(shan)、敏感性分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)及工程(cheng)(cheng)費用估算(suan)、結論與建議等。規范交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)內容(rong)的(de)(de)(de)廣度(du)和(he)(he)深度(du)，實現(xian)交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)程(cheng)(cheng)序的(de)(de)(de)標(biao)準(zhun)化一(yi)方面可(ke)完善(shan)了交(jiao)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)析(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)(xi)體系，更重要的(de)(de)(de)可(ke)為合理(li)評價成果(guo)提供前(qian)提。

6 選擇合理的評(ping)價指標，實現交通影響分析(xi)評(ping)判標準的標準化

實踐中的(de)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)報(bao)告(gao)沒有(you)(you)(you)規定咨(zi)詢單(dan)位(wei)(wei)的(de)應(ying)付責任，無形中放任了咨(zi)詢單(dan)位(wei)(wei)的(de)客(ke)觀工作(zuo)態度，導致交通(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)報(bao)告(gao)缺乏應(ying)有(you)(you)(you)的(de)客(ke)觀性，缺乏有(you)(you)(you)效的(de)市場監督，造成許多咨(zi)詢單(dan)位(wei)(wei)的(de)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)報(bao)告(gao)是“拿人(ren)錢財，與人(ren)消災”，違背了交通(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)的(de)本意(yi)，也(ye)為以后的(de)城(cheng)市規劃建(jian)設(she)和交通(tong)(tong)(tong)埋下(xia)了隱患。因此，選擇(ze)合理(li)的(de)評(ping)價指標，從從業機構的(de)資質上開始把關(guan)，明確咨(zi)詢單(dan)位(wei)(wei)應(ying)負的(de)責任，通(tong)(tong)(tong)過(guo)實現交通(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)評(ping)判標準的(de)標準化使(shi)得交通(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)從入到出都在一個受(shou)控狀(zhuang)態下(xia)進(jin)行，有(you)(you)(you)利于確保結果的(de)客(ke)觀和合格，也(ye)有(you)(you)(you)利于交通(tong)(tong)(tong)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)分(fen)析(xi)(xi)的(de)健康發展。